The article below was removed from Medium without reason, against their own terms of service.
The evidence presented points out that the virus was probably in the US since November and we have only recently been willing or able to test for it.
“The hypothetical COVID curve we are trying to flatten — the time rate at which the number of people needing intensive medical treatment will grow to exceed our capacity to care for them — is based on assumptions about when COVID was brought to the US, the speed of its transmission, and the ability of our healthcare system to accommodate the most severely affected patients. By isolating citizens in their homes, lockdown policies intend to slow the rate of infection, thereby “flattening” the curve, which will allow us to ration healthcare resources over time.”“The model with the most profound impact on public health policy was produced at Imperial College on 16 March 2020. It compared the health outcomes of suppression (i.e., lockdown) with less restrictive policies and predicted that millions in the United States and United Kingdom (2.2 million and 500K respectively) would die from COVID-19 unless aggressive containment measures were instituted immediately.Since publication, new data has challenged the Imperial College model and its projections. Points of contention have centered around hospitalization, fatality, and transmission rates. The lead author of the study has since revised the fatality expectations substantially downward. So there are some adjustments being made to the initial assumptions.But there’s one data point being used in all of the prevailing models, including Imperial, that no one is talking about.When did the COVID curve begin?”
“In December 2019, the UK’s National Health Service (NHS) reported that they were experiencing an exceptionally bad flu season and conducted media outreach to encourage citizens to get their flu shots in hopes the campaign might curtail the outbreak.“Almost 12,000 patients across Britain went to their GP last week (Dec 9 -15) complaining of influenza-like symptoms, such as a fever, aching muscles and headaches. This is 25 per cent higher than the week before, where 9,500 — including almost 8,000 from England — sought advice for similar symptoms. On top of the soaring GP visits, there were more than 50,000 calls made to NHS 111 regarding cold and flu.An early start to the season has left 2,092 people in England needing treatment for the contagious virus so far in 2019. By comparison, there were just 256 hospital admissions with flu at the same point 12 months ago.And the number of patients rushed into intensive care with the flu is three times higher than last winter.– Daily Mail, 19 December 2019.”
“Flu-like illness reports exceeded 30,000 per week in early November 2019, and were soon running almost double the rate of previous recent years. Data source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/fluportaldashboard.htmlNearly twice as many ILI visits were reported during the beginning of the 2019–2020 flu season than were reported in either of the two previous years. By December 2019, there were over 80,000 US patients seeking treatment for flu-like symptoms — long before Chinese authorities reported COVID to global health organizations on 31 Dec 2019.”
Here is more evidence of community spread of Covid19 since December in Oregon.
Community Serum Testing For COVID-19 Antibodies
“Of the 40 people tested, one individual was positive for IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 Spike S1. Weak positivesignals were also qualitatively detected in study participants 6, 13 and 35 (figure 3).The study participant with strongest IgG signal was subject number 32 and they reported significant illness in December of 2019.Study participant 32 and 35 are friends and had contact with each other. Study member 35 reported a significant flu likeillness in January of 2020. Of the four individuals with a positive result, only these two had contact with each other. “